Predicting deaths attributable to global warming

Out of more than 68,000 heat-related deaths during the summer of 2022, over half (38,154) could have been prevented without global warming, according to an epidemiological model-based study conducted by a research group at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal). These models, adjusted to temperatures and mortality data from 35 countries, show an increase in heat-related deaths not only during extreme summers such as that of 2022, but also generally between 2015 and 2021. Southern European regions are the most affected, with Spain and Italy having bewteen 64 and 71% of the deaths attributable to anthropogenic warming.

The results also indicate that women and those over 80 are the most vulnerable to heat-related mortality. In light of this alarming situation, the researchers urge European governments to implement more effective adaptation and mitigation measures to address rising temperatures and associated mortality.

“If no action is taken, record temperatures and heat-related mortality will continue to rise in the coming years”
Joan Ballester Claramunt (ISGlobal), principal researcher of the study and the EARLY-ADAPT project (ERC).

Reduction in heat-related workplace accidents

On a more positive note, a second study by the same group has shown a decrease in the risk of heat-related workplace accidents in Spain, which dropped from 19% to 13% between 1989 and 2019. This improvement can be attributed to the Occupational Risk Prevention Law, which established protective measures for workers.

The analysis, covering more than 22 million workplace accidents over 32 years, shows that heat has a greater impact than cold on workplace accidents, with 2.7% of them attributable to extreme temperatures.

Demographically, male workers, young people, and those with less experience are the most affected, and sectors like agriculture and hostelry are the most exposed. The study also confirms that the health effects of heat are influenced by inequalities between provinces and social determinants. It’s important to note that the study does not include undocumented workers, who are more vulnerable to various risks due to the lack of regulation of their working conditions.

The results of this study will be incorporated into the Forecaster.health platform to create the first early warning system on the effects of temperature on workplace accidents in Spain and across Europe.